Diplomacy, Ukraine and the consequences of Putin

In this episode, Jane Craigie and her Dad, Iain Craigie, look back into Iain's career in intelligence to hear his take on what is happening following the upheaval and displacement caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 

This was recorded at the height of this summer's UK heatwave before Russia permitted the first shipment of grain from Ukraine. 

Transcript

Unknown: 0:10

Welcome to the spy who raised me podcast conversations between a daughter and her father. Yes, you've guessed it, he was a spy. So Dad, we're sitting in Aberdeenshire, in my husband Mike's Furniture Workshop, because it's the only cool place. It's slap bang in a heatwave, and you're up visiting. I don't think the temperature that we've reached is as high as it is in the south of England, which is merciful, really, because I think they're experiencing 36 to 40 degrees Celsius. And we are a cool 28 or 29. Here, weather that we don't normally experience. But still field feels hot. It does. So we're cool in the workshop. And we've just been discussing Ukraine and Russia. So we've been in this awful situation where Putin ordered a an invasion of Ukraine. And it's really made us think about and talk about dad's career in intelligence. And one of the constants in your career was Russia. Why was that? And what do you think about what's going on in Ukraine? Well, I think there's always been an awareness that Russia has the potential to be a very bad neighbor in Europe, but also across across the world. And there have been so many incidences of aggression, and of Russia seeking to bring back territory that they felt was part of the Soviet Empire before 1989, before the collapse of communism. So it's, it is reached a point where all the pundits are scratching their heads because the invasion of Ukraine has had repercussions across the world, not just between Europe, and Ukraine, and Russia. But all the big powers are being affected in some way. And they're beginning to change their, their approach, America is probably Case in point, certainly in Europe, with the complications of Brexit, as far as Britain is concerned, but also in with the threat to some of the the historically neutral countries like Norway and Sweden, who have always vowed not to be part of NATO, and to do the thing, which they've done exceptionally well during the Cold War. And they have kept their neutrality, but now with the pressure of Ukraine, and Putin who seems somewhat demented to the rest of the world, but he has such a clear vision, I think, as he seizes of grabbing some of the land that yet for was part of the Soviet Union. So he, it's his strategy is obviously, to try and take back some of the areas like Crimea, like Georgia, where he feels that Russians are in control or should be in control. This is why and that part of the coast of the Black Sea is trying to negotiate a means by which he can, he can take control of larger areas. And this is a great fear in Germany and other countries in Europe. And of course, economically, because it was his control over energy supplies. He has a very strong hand play. And of course, the Europeans are now sitting back thinking, Oh, my God, why did we agree to signing a deal giving us her energy almost predominantly from Russia. So Russia now can control that they can turn on the tap, they can turn off the tap, but also with the with the adage, shock of invasion and the Ukraine, and with the arsenal of weapons, they have no which are not, which are not just battlefield weapons, but weapons that can threaten far as America. They're just so they're so well organized, that we just have to wait and see what the next move is from Russia. Politically, diplomatically. What do you think is going on in the intelligence circles, or what has been going on since Russia invaded? Give us an insight into what sort of Conversations, what sort of international relations, what sort of changes to international security will have happened as a result of this invasion? Well, I think it's changed quite markedly since since the 80s. Where it was a question of having targets that were of interest to the security services in the UK and America, Australia, and New Zealand. And that has changed so much in the last few years. I mean, the types of weapons they're using, the types of communication they're using, just know very difficult with the present, communication set up to control what's being said. And also the Russians in particular, probably, to a lesser extent, the Chinese have the ability to corrupt the communication channels between between the allies and between European countries. So So cybersecurity is such an important part of how work gets done now. And of course, America, I think, has been slow to react to that as as Europe, and everyone's beginning to realize that they have to get control of that Chinese Russians may be working together, they may not be, but it's a huge threat when your own communications are not secure. When systems systems of of collecting information is corrupted by the Russians and by the Chinese and by other countries. So it's never quite sure whether they can be certain of cyber security, which is a massive, massive consideration if you're if you're looking at a potential invasion of the whole of Europe. And not America. I don't think the Russians would contemplate after this. You're already in their 60s When when they got into Cuba with nuclear weapon. So that point about cyber security, how does the intelligence community so the US, Europe and other allies, how do they defend themselves from that cyber threat? Is it just a case of keeping one step ahead of the Russians? Or are there other techniques that you think that they will be using? Well, I think I think the problem is it's so complicated now. Because the Chinese, I think, probably and Chinese in particular, have been aware of the possibilities of corrupting collection, intelligence collection by other countries. But of course, they have been instrumental in and providing a lot of the components that are used, and modern communications tips and things like that. I mean, they control not just the manufacturer of those things, but also the source of different chemicals. They need to provide that. So that's why in the last decade, probably, the Brits have been conscious of this massive threat, and have the possibility of all our communications being subverted or mis directed, in the sense that when they send information, data information, and satellite, if it's a components of switch their their communications are set up, were manufactured in China, it's a very difficult thing with the software problems to find out what what they've done, which is why why are we there? You know, all that. All that purely was, was to do with with that, how much do they know how much can they control even even systems of war, like guided missiles, like a protective screens for possibility of attack from Russia? So I mean, all of that is is just huge worry for people and rush slow to begin, I think, China in particular, over the last 20 years, maybe more, have been creating an empire which is fairly do sir, not aggressive, very intrusive at all these countries were essential chemicals. as necessary, they've invested in them, they're now in control of huge parts of the world where they have unlimited access to all those things that are required for high tech communication system. And, and I think the Americans are just beginning to realize that, of course, they have a lot of Chinese people who are learning how to put communication systems together, and Silicon Valley and places like that. And to what extent those people who have been experimenting and supporting investment in America and in Europe, to what extent some of the systems have been, without the host countries knowing have been incorporated in these know what they are supplying for the rest of the world. So it's a very, very complex situation. And of course, you can see that by, by the way, the bread and butter Americans in whole of Europe, have now increased dramatically in the amount of people who are working on cybersecurity. And, of course, GCHQ has invested a huge amount into cyber, they've got a new facility in London, or they've ramped up their recruitment, and also their outreach into the community to try and find good people to go and work in in GCHQ. Because of this cyber threat, how far do you think they will have come in those years since they've ramped up their cyber focus? What I can gather and what I can glean from various sources, they are way ahead of Europe, the way ahead of America sets out in America, they have certain areas where they have invested a lot of money, but it's still the case that, you know, as far as certainly the armed forces are concerned, they are very nervous about deploying troops and equipment to places like well, like the Ukraine, whether and in Afghanistan, whether the quality of the information they're getting, and what on which they base their their approach to invaded countries like like Afghanistan, they're not at all sure that that what they have is, is bona fide D and can be used as the sole source of of background intelligence. So what other sources would they be using to get that information? Well, I'm in the US the normal using diplomatic sources, but also targeting I guess, some of the leaders who are who are, like Putin, to try and build up a picture of what their thought processes might may be, because it's not just a question now, wondering whether countries like Russia can be a huge, important force and attacking other countries. We know they are, we know that ahead. Some of them and we know that energy and supply of gas and oil and dirt is such a crucial factor because they can't they know that they can turn the tap off and and cripple European system that depends so heavily on energy and why, why those countries, particularly Germany, were foolish enough to sign into that. And it just shows you that the economics of countries and areas has changed so dramatically. For sources of food, heating, aging, population populations, increasing populations, all other things are factors. And of course, the supply of energy is, is a nerve nerve center. Because if you don't have gas, if you don't have various thing, you don't have the supplies that should be coming in and from other countries, countries like Africa and DRC, like Kazakhstan. I mean, there's so many sources now of essential chemicals from other countries that we've just missed the plot I think in all those areas, which Manchuria choose another one I can I can think of where they've been working out where the Chinese in particular, looking for sources of energy that they can control and that is pretty put the whole of the Western world and, and our predicament that none of them's for so at least if they did they weren't aware If the seriousness of the situation, and it takes me on to thinking about sanctions, you know, they're all well and good, putting sanctions on Russia. But some countries, some companies really struggle to separate those ties, because they're so dependent on energy from Russia. So we can sanction and stop imports and stop money movements. But as long as that energy supply is still there, as the world prices have gone up to the to the level that they are, then there's still a steady supply of income for Russia to be able to fund what it needs to do in Ukraine. Absolutely. And of course, energy means food, because you need energy to, to manufacture fertilizer, you need money to be able to store huge amounts of food, as is the case in the Ukraine, where they have huge storage areas for for different types of grain. I mean, they have produced what 10% of the food and in the civilized world, so So here we are with a situation where an ADESA and other points across the Black Sea, that are huge amounts of grain from from last year, and can't move up. And no, no, it sounds like whether it's true, whether it's not the Russians are beginning to move some of that, especially in the Donbass that that area, which makes you think, Well, what should they be doing in the Black Sea, because the Black Sea is as they have access to it. So has the Ukraine, there has darky. So I have a few other countries. And you would think that if there was a pinch point, now in that area to make sure that at least parts of the rest of the world could benefit from, from those huge storage of food. That, as with them, as of the ship, the battleship was sunk and the Black Sea a few months ago, I mean, that that sort of thing will harass the Russians, and perhaps make them reach a point where they're thinking, well, this isn't working. But once you've got files, they've got that and as you're saying, Jane, the fact that they have control of the energy, they're so strong, I mean, they're really so strong, and it's going to be so difficult to send the Ukraine, we're lucky that the Ukrainians are so well organized. And and, you know, politically but also with armed forces. They I don't think anybody realized they were so dedicated to gang. And I mean, they managed to, they managed to subvert their Russian invasion in various spaces. But when you see that the absolute, certainly unbelievable amount of weapons that Russia has stored over the past two decades or so. I mean, they've just, it's incredible. And so but the Ukrainians, given the circumstances going some, given some support by other countries, given some systems that can nullify the Russians with their superior weapons. They've done a fantastic job, right. Yeah, I agree, dad. And it's it's interesting, heartening, just sobering to see how Ukraine has responded. I mean, there's such patriotism, such love of their land. Those poor people have been through so much destroyed everything that they have. And under great leadership, I mean, Zelensky has been tremendous, hasn't the rallying his opponents in the political sphere to support him, his decision making the country the nation has been behind him, despite some horrible decisions for families where the men of the family have been left in Ukraine to fight and meanwhile, families parents have moved away from Ukraine to safety, which is absolutely right. But that dedication to the leader and to the cause for the country is just you don't expect it in this era. Do you know you're doing I think, you know, the situation where I live, some of the refugees Ukrainian refugees are now settled in villages around Oxfordshire, which is an amazing thing, but it's so it's quite humbling to see because of it Elijah I live in, there are now an excess of 50 Ukrainian refugees who have moved in and it's only a village with 300 homes, I think so it's so it's incredible. But you can see firsthand the difficulties that some of these families have. Because the scenario if a male is over eating, they can't leave the Ukraine, they have to fight in whatever part of the armed forces. So there's this very difficult situation where, where people come, come to this country settle. And they're just remarkably well, they're just fantastic people. But you'll hear some someone talking to their husband who's in the front line. And you can hear the sound of shelling as it has spoken to some of the people living in your village in North Morton, it's been just wonderful to see how the community has embraced people from Ukraine, mothers, children, God's sons, nephews, just that not only have you seen families within the UK taking people in, but you've also seen families from Ukraine, helping one another out to bring pets and children over. But it's just been so lovely to see how the community has rallied in in your village and really embrace them help them because they've come here with absolutely nothing other than their passports. And they have to set up their lives from scratch, they've got no money, they've got no citizenship, nowhere to go to school. So they come needing all of that setups, the families have not only welcomed them in, but they've also sorted out everything that they need in their lives, dentists, doctors, social security, support, hospital appointments, doctor's appointments, Getting Started at a new school, you know, just it's never ending. And it's, it's happened so quickly. I mean, from the first indication that, you know, we in the village could could accept refugee, it's, it's just phenomenal how quickly it's been set up, our lines of communication have been set up, how the schools have been, you know, consulted. And I mean, they have they have been most incredible, it's quite an interesting aside that some of the private schools, and there are a lot of people, children from that area, from the village I live in, but also in that in that area who go to private school, lots of different private schools that are quite prestigious. And it was quite an interesting thing to observe how quickly local primary schools and secondary schools reaching out to the refugee children, within weeks of them arriving we were single, well, we could maybe do this, I don't think we private schools were quite so forthcoming. But there's, there's there has been some lovely stories of 100% support for, you know, bright children to go into, you know, other forms of education, private grammar, because they were on a really good trajectory back in Ukraine. And it's been great to see those examples, as well as the, you know, the state schools welcoming them in and gearing them themselves up to have language skills to be able to support these children. As they come into school. Some of them don't speak English. And they don't speak English, but they have they have an aptitude for language. And it's amazing how quickly I mean, a lot of the villagers have got together so they have a class of I think it's four villagers, people who volunteer to go and set up language training thing in the village hall, which is which is great. But and it's interesting to see to the disparity and, and education facilities throughout the United Kingdom. One one very bright young Ukrainian who, who moved into the village a few months ago, he he was saying his contacting a couple of universities. And he he said, and I think Glasgow University might be might replace and I said why Glasgow University said, Well, it's got a good reputation which also you don't have to pay. And it was interesting, we, I know, there was a family in your village where there was a possibility of a one of the children going to a private A school. And the mother made the decision absolutely correctly for her circumstance that the schools a long way away, she didn't know how long that school would support her child. And also, it was likely that she was as her mother, she was likely to be working in the town where the local comprehensive was. And so for her, the practical and the right decision was for the child to go to the local comprehensive, where they could travel in in the morning together, it would save them cost a free bus that would take them in so the practicalities of living have dictated a lot of the decisions that the families have made. Yeah, that's true. I mean, all of them seem very sensible. And, and the interesting thing, too, is how, how quickly, they have become a group. Not one, it's that a divorce from the activities of the village, but one that's seeking to join some of the committees to be a part of that community. And one really good example that was the project you started during lockdown, which was putting up polytunnels on community owned land, and you gained funding from the local community council to put up those polytunnels? Well, number two is going up now. And you've said that that's been a real draw for the Ukrainian people in your community. They've come they want to grow things. Yeah. They love doing that. So now we've got I mean, we've encouraged in the very beginning, and some of them have quite close to the, to the project, and they come now so they'll come and say, Oh, we we got some cabbages and we got this guy, but they don't stop there. Then what happens a couple of days later, they'll come and say, Oh, we've made this you know, like salads or there's one dish where he's chopped up various things like beet juice and other vegetables. Because borscht the so that they've planted loads or beetroot and radish and pumpkins. And there's a chatting all the time saying, Hey, we could do this, do that. And you heard about the the event. They organized themselves, no help from the village, and recreation grand and they set up Sonic a couple of weeks ago, very secretive it was and they weren't telling us what they were tending to do. But when it happened on the night, I think it must have been about 100. And I know 120 People, okay, and they had made all the food, her dress up and national dress done. The Ukrainian well welcoming dance are the holes in all 50 or however many that were stood up. One little girl did a wee bit of DOCTYPE dancing. And one was an opera singer. So all this was going on. It was bizarre because they were they would come come as people came and recreation. They were coming up and welcoming those who spoke English or saying Welcome, come and have a drink. And that was a lovely thing. It's just it shows how grateful they are and how much they want to share their culture comes back to that point about how you know how that sense of pride national pride is just so strong in Ukraine. And we've seen that every turn in this conflict, haven't we so adept, one of the you know, listening to some of my I can I got involved in, in dropping some of the closer one engineer who didn't the village wants to go shopping. I would say well just just text me. I can take you out and you see. So that was fine. But they were saying as as they have settled, they've also began to be more open about what's happening in the Ukraine. You see, I was chatting to one who speaks good English. And I said what's it like in those areas where, you know, there are some Russian speaking and she said it's really difficult. She said, we know this family viewed themselves as Ukrainian. But we have other bits of the family who are further east in the Donbass and some in Russia, and she said it's just impossible. There is so much bad information. Sure. And of course, the Russian media is controlled, every bit of it is controlled. So the stuff that they're spouting is Russia is so so closed. No, no. What all the news. So then to say to Russian people in the Ukraine, terror and Ukrainians, were doing this, it's not a war, really, we're doing so it's a military exercise, which is absolute nonsense. So that all that it's created a lot of divisions in between the Ukrainians and the Russians in that meta familial level. That's that's, you don't think about that? Do you? And Dad, how do you think this will play out? You know, the conflicts been going on for well over six months now? It doesn't look like it's going to abate. What are your views? How do you think this will play out? How do you think it will end? Well, I think it's so difficult because I mean, you know, got America has taken quite a strong hand in is having, I think, lost their ascendancy and oil politics because of Afghan Afghanistan, basically. And, of course, with Brexit and all the shenanigans that the Europeans and Turkey was a big was a big part of is a big part of what's happening because they sound as if, although douarnenez is one of Putin's friends, he does sound as if he's backed off a bit from that and is beginning to look at other countries, and also the food supplies from from and that's going to be a huge issue because because it affects you know, all the countries and especially in Africa who are suffering like Somalia and Eritrea. And while throughout throughout Africa, we just will not have enough food so so we're gonna try and release I think I think the Ukrainians probably have managed to split it summer, some of those stored corn and samplers, it's a bit dimeric. The Russians have they think managed to stop that in certain areas, and they have taken some of the food because they'll be shorter food to feeding an army that that, you know, go away from multiple. Just just hearing you say that, you know, there's no, I don't sense from you that you see this ending anytime soon. I feel the same. Just feel there is escalation, if anything, because the Ukrainians are getting more armaments, more defense support. NATO is still doing its job of being, you know, it's slightly impartial self or a slightly impartial force. But it is also gaining in strength. So Norway and Sweden, you know, that's a big move. Turkey backing down on not allowing them to join is a big move. So there are some some, you know, big things happening within the defense world. But I don't like you, I don't see an end to this anytime soon, which is gravely worrying from a practical point of view, energy, food, inflation, but also, from a world security perspective. If anything, one positive thing that will come out of this is the international relationships post COVID, where most countries become very became very nationalistic, focused on survival of their nation, getting people vaccinated. If anything, it has opened up the world to unite some parts of the world to unite over this over this issue. I think that's I think that's true. And I think that's a good thing. That sort of sort of happened, but we're still you know, I mean, some of the Western nations, Europe and America, certainly they're, you know, they have ambivalent views on refugees, for example. I mean, it's got this huge climate change. With that lack of food with with the increase in population, the numbers are appearing. It's going to be a bigger and bigger problem. And people maybe predominantly from Africa, but also other poor nations, that they're going to they're going to start up the tempo and they'll be looking for for settling another country and our attitude and I think probably Americans attitude, it's It's such a controversial thing. And I mean, I, I can, you know, when you look back at angler Merkel and her famous began when she when she let her and I don't know how many there is a million or something or half a million refugees. She's East German, so that would probably have affected her. But I mean, we're gonna have to relax and the number of people we're allowed to come in and sending them off to Rwanda, for example, it's just wow. Yeah. Let's not get on to Boris Johnson and his politics, we'll be here for another three hours. just laughable, who says she's. So yeah, so that's all interesting journey. And I think, you know, future podcasts we now have, I mean, we haven't made podcasts for for quite some time, for simple reason that, that so much is happening, you feel know that so much happening, that it's not up to date, podcast on what is happening, maybe with, with a different view, and just some, I mean, some of that some of the reporting, that we're hearing now is just fantastic. You know, like John Simpson, and others who are really digging in and getting some some valuable stuff, you know, from UK and within Ukraine, but also also in the Russian area. Yeah. ever grateful to our media. And we're, we're so lucky to have media that's free. And like that, and how that are funded to be able to go out and tell these stories, and long may that continue, and dangerous have been seven days assignment. Oh, yeah, they take on, it's such a huge personal responsibility, I don't know. But anyway, Dad, that's 40 minutes. And it is, and it's been absolutely lovely talking to you in person. And we don't see enough of each other. And I do love listening to you, we've learned so much about your views and your past and your thoughts. And you think deeply about things you listen to so much. And you've had you've had LBC up to your ear for the last 24 hours listening to what's going on in the world. And you know that that's such a healthy way to live your life about, you know, what's going on the world keeping up to date and having debates like this. So thank you. I think it is wonderful. You think it'll make a difference in the long run all this, you know, navel gazing, and they can see whether our system political and economic 10 koolart will look back and five years time and say, Well, I hope so. I think conversation is the starting point for resolution. And I think if more people talk about their differences, as well as where they agree, then you know, and I wish Solinsky and Putin could do that. But it's it's not going to happen anytime too soon. So in the meantime, we'll watch on and see what Britain's going to do. You know that you know, the dog litter burden in the village or suddenly has breached or if a dog ran ran the back of the benefit Putin. Well, on that note, let's go and get a glass of homemade elderflower cordial which is fermenting so we might be a bit sozzled after we've, we've drunk it. That's great. And I think the sun has is behind clouds now. I think it might be a might be a little bit cooler out there. Thank you